Current news in the oil, gas and energy sector as of December 1, 2025: oil market trends, gas balance in Europe, renewable energy development, coal sector dynamics and oil refinery prospects. Analytics for investors and energy companies.
A global energy market is currently under pressure from oversupply and geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices remain near two-year lows against a backdrop of weak demand, while European gas reserves are close to record levels, ensuring stability for the heating season. Amidst this, global investors are actively directing funds into "green" energy and network upgrades, considering long-term trends towards a transition to clean energy. Below is an overview of key news in the oil, gas, and energy sectors as of December 1, 2025.
Oil Market: Supply and Demand Balance
- OPEC+ Output Growth: OPEC+ members agreed to a slight increase in quotas in December (approximately +137,000 barrels/day), while maintaining the suspension of further increases in Q1 2026 due to fears of market oversaturation. This supports the surplus supply and restrains strong price growth.
- Demand Slowdown: The International Energy Agency reports weak dynamics in global oil consumption. Demand is growing much slower than last year, which, combined with inventory accumulation (especially in the USA), exerts downward pressure on prices.
- U.S. Inventories: The level of commercial oil inventories in the USA continues to rise (the Energy Department reports an increase last week), while the number of active drilling rigs remains close to historical lows. Meanwhile, U.S. production (13.8 million barrels/day in September) is record-breaking, raising concerns about oversupply in the market.
- Geopolitical Background: Negotiations between the USA, Russia, and Ukraine regarding conflict resolution remain in the spotlight for investors. Statements of readiness for peace have previously led to a short-term decrease in oil prices (in anticipation of sanctions being lifted), but the absence of guarantees maintains uncertainty. Even in the case of a peace agreement, any lifting of restrictions on Russian oil exports will be gradual, making its effect on global prices unlikely to be immediate.
Gas Market: Reserves and Regional Trends
- Reserves in Europe: As of early December, European underground storage facilities are filled to about 75-80% of total capacity, which significantly exceeds the average figures of previous years and provides a buffer for the cold season. This situation excludes speculative purchases and sharp price spikes in gas.
- Prices and LNG: European gas prices (TTF) are maintained below €30/MWh — the lowest since the onset of the energy crisis. The USA and other suppliers are actively increasing LNG exports (in 2025, LNG imports into the EU doubled compared to the same period last year). Meanwhile, Russia continues to redirect gas eastward: deliveries to China via "Power of Siberia" are increasing, and Gazprom is boosting deliveries to Turkey, compensating for the complete cessation of transit through Ukraine.
- Route Changes: Europe continues to diversify supplies — additional LNG terminals and interregional gas pipelines are being constructed (through North Africa, Azerbaijan, etc.). The Russian side is looking for new routes and sales mechanisms: land routes to China are being considered, LNG flow from "Yamal LNG" and "Arctic LNG" is being accelerated, and discussions for new gas pipelines for southern directions are underway.
Electric Power and Renewable Energy: Investments and Innovations
- Record Growth in "Green" Generation: Many countries have set historical records for electricity production from wind and sun. Major wind and solar projects have been completed in Europe, the USA, and China. Investors are allocating record amounts to expand "clean" energy and develop energy storage systems (lithium-ion and alternative batteries) to enhance network flexibility amidst high shares of renewable sources.
- Climate Agenda: At the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, world leaders agreed on annual investments of around $148 billion in the modernization of power grids and energy storage systems, as well as the launch of a global carbon quota trading system. However, the final declaration did not include direct calls to abandon hydrocarbons, reflecting attempts to consider the interests of fuel exporters and proponents of "green" transition.
- Nuclear Energy: Russia announced a large-scale program for the development of nuclear power plants — by 2042, plans are in place to introduce another 38 power units (approximately 30 GW), which will increase the share of nuclear generation to a quarter of the energy balance. Concurrently, China, the USA, and several European countries are investing in new small modular reactors and exploring innovative nuclear technologies, supporting the role of nuclear energy in ensuring grid stability.
Coal Sector: Demand and Prices
- Growth in Asia: China entered the 2025/2026 heating season with record coal-fired generation — in October-November, electricity production from coal stations exceeded last year's levels by 7-8%. Meanwhile, restrictions on coal mining in the PRC (based on "anti-inflation" measures) lead to raw material shortages and rising domestic prices: at port terminals, coal prices have risen nearly 40% from this year's low.
- Europe and the World: In contrast to Asia, Europe and the USA continue to reduce coal consumption (in favor of gas and renewable energy). Some countries are starting to systematically close coal-fired power plants, reducing demand. According to World Bank estimates, global coal demand fell by about 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 due to rapid growth in "green" generation, although the resumption of industrial growth may change this dynamic.
- Prices and Trade: Limited production from major exporters (Indonesia, Australia) and growing demand in Asia support global coal prices. European traders are reducing purchases, but volatile funds remain in the market: major players are already signing long-term contracts for coal supplies in 2026, expecting prices to continue rising.
Petroleum Products and Refineries: Domestic Market and Export
- Tax Incentives Abroad: At the end of November 2025, Russia adopted a law allowing oil companies to receive refunds of excise taxes paid for oil processing at foreign refineries under a "tolling" scheme. The mechanism is extended to petrol and diesel produced from Russian oil at foreign refineries (including Belarusian ones), stimulating processing abroad and increasing exports of petroleum products to Asian and European countries.
- Stabilization of the Domestic Market: After an autumn fuel deficit, the government implemented restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports and expanded damping tools. By the end of November, domestic wholesale prices for automotive fuel began to decrease, eliminating shortages at gas stations. This stabilizes retail prices and reduces inflationary pressure on the economy.
Russian Oil and Gas Sector: Finance and Infrastructure
- Financial Results: The total net profit of the largest Russian oil and gas companies fell almost by half (to about 2 trillion rubles) over the nine months of 2025, while the number of unprofitable enterprises sharply increased. This is attributed to the decline in the average export price of Urals (to ~$65-70 compared to $75-80 a year earlier), the strengthening of the ruble, and rising costs (insurance, logistics) in the context of sanctions.
- Gas Segment: Gazprom remains profitable due to high contract prices and market diversification. Despite the complete cessation of transit through Ukraine, the company has increased supplies through "Power of Siberia" and "Turkish Stream". The state supports the industry with modernization programs for gas transportation infrastructure and construction of new underground gas storage facilities.
- Oil Segment: Oil production in Russia is close to its maximum, but revenue is declining due to sanctions and market oversaturation. The launch of new projects is hindered by restrictions (sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil), so Gazprom Neft and Rosneft are reallocating capacities towards petrochemicals and exports to eastern markets, while domestic refineries operate at reduced capacity.
Geopolitics and Sanctions: Impact on the Energy Market
- Diplomatic Negotiations: The energy market sharply reacts to news of negotiations regarding Ukraine. While there are no real shifts towards peace, local price reactions are limited by expectations of future changes. Investors understand that any agreement will lead only to a gradual easing of export restrictions, so fundamental supply and demand factors continue to primarily influence prices.
- International Diversification: Western countries continue to systematically reduce dependence on Russian energy resources. Europe is increasing purchases from the USA, the Middle East, and other regions, while expanding programs for green energy. The USA and its allies are boosting their own oil and gas production to enhance energy security while maintaining sanctions against Russian oil and gas projects.
